Until 100 years ago, almost everyone on earth lived with shortages.

While a few were rich, most people seldom even had enough to eat. The 20th century was incredible. We acquired the ability to produce food and goods to satisfy the needs of everyone on earth, though we did not make them available to everyone.

We have had two major power struggles during the 20th century. At the beginning, production was ‘difficult’, so those who could produce were able to ‘call the shots’. WW II was a war of production and it was won by the side that was able to produce the most bombs and bullets.

Since then, productivity has continued to improve. Production is no longer the ‘hard part’. The challenge during the past few decades has been to convince people to buy. Hence marketing has become king. Between 3rd world labor and automation, production costs have fallen dramatically. For most products, the major costs are Marketing & Distribution and R&D.

But the smart folks have recognized that the 21st century will be even more unsettling than the 20th century. Computer controlled extraction of natural resources and production (including nanotechnology) can drive manufacturing costs to almost zero. (Go read ‘A for Anything’ , by Damon Knight) With the Internet, we will be able to distribute the knowledge of how to produce. This will eliminate most of the challenges associated with distribution (since it will be possible to do most production locally) so there will be little money to be made there either, unless artificial controls and impediments are implemented.

This is why there’s such a fight for intellectual property rights. Only by controlling the knowledge of how and what to produce can power be maintained by those who value it. By the middle of the 21st century, the major cost of any material item will be the ‘intellectual property’ charge.

With production automated, almost everyone who is employed will be working in service jobs by 2050. And then it gets more interesting.

As AI research progresses, we will be able to build robots capable of doing service jobs. The health care crisis will be ‘solved’ during the second half of the 21st century. Robots will replace, not only orderlies and nurses, but physicians and surgeons, too. The cost of producing these robots will be minimal. The valuable commodity will be the knowledge of how to program them to do what you want them to do.

By the end of the 21st century, creativity — the creation of intellectual property — will be the only currently known role that will still be the domain of us humans. And the control of that creativity is what is being fought for now.

That’s the power struggle going on now. It’s just started.

One more thing. By the end of the 21st century, molecular genetics will have progressed to the point where most people will be able to live almost forever. Imagine living forever in a world where production and services basically cost nothing. The only thing of value will be control of the intellectual property behind it all. Imagine a world where material items sell for a dollar each and services are provided for ten cents an hour. It could be paradise if you have the money to pay for what you want. But if you don’t, how do you compete against such prices?

The challenge as we approach the 22nd century will be to rethink the issues of access. How will we reward innovation while making it possible for most people to survive and live reasonably good lives?

Because, if most people cannot pay for those goods and services, there will be a revolution. If that revolution succeeds, those who were on top will be gone. If the revolution fails, the whole economic system will collapse from lack of customers.

Hang onto your hat. It’s going to be a wild ride.

Unknown Source